rallentamento verso il potenziale

English translation: [fall in] potential GDP/growth

10:08 Dec 11, 2019
Italian to English translations [PRO]
Bus/Financial - Economics / Macroeconomics
Italian term or phrase: rallentamento verso il potenziale
In a macroeconomic report about the United States:

"Lo scenario economico americano prevede una crescita moderata (1,8% nel 2020, 1,7% nel 2021), in rallentamento verso il potenziale."

Is it simply saying that growth will slow down? The next sentence, however, begins with "La prosecuzione della ripresa dipenderà dalla...", which suggests an upturn rather than a slowing down of growth.
Andrew Fanko
United Kingdom
Local time: 17:35
English translation:[fall in] potential GDP/growth
Explanation:
It sounds to me like potenziale here is shorthand for "potential GDP" or "potential growth", which is a forecast rather than actual measure. It depends among other things on employment levels and inflation rates.

Compare actual/potential GDP with an economy's (supposed) natural or real rate of interest.

Quora has a discussion thread on actual vs potential rates of economic growth: https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-difference-between-actual-...

See also the OECD's glossary: https://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=2094
Selected response from:

Wolf Draeger
South Africa
Local time: 19:35
Grading comment
Yes, having investigated it a bit more I agree with this. Thank you for your help.
4 KudoZ points were awarded for this answer



Summary of answers provided
5 +1rising more slowly towards full capacity levels
Wolfgang Hager
4at a slower pace
Rosanna Palermo
3[fall in] potential GDP/growth
Wolf Draeger


  

Answers


29 mins   confidence: Answerer confidence 3/5Answerer confidence 3/5
[fall in] potential GDP/growth


Explanation:
It sounds to me like potenziale here is shorthand for "potential GDP" or "potential growth", which is a forecast rather than actual measure. It depends among other things on employment levels and inflation rates.

Compare actual/potential GDP with an economy's (supposed) natural or real rate of interest.

Quora has a discussion thread on actual vs potential rates of economic growth: https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-difference-between-actual-...

See also the OECD's glossary: https://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=2094

Example sentence(s):
  • Forecasts for the US economy point to moderate growth of 1.8% in 2020 and 1.7% in 2021 in line with a fall in potential GDP.
  • Forecasts for the US economy point to moderate growth of 1.8% in 2020 and 1.7% in 2021 as potential GDP decreases.

    Reference: http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopse...
    Reference: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_output
Wolf Draeger
South Africa
Local time: 19:35
Native speaker of: English
PRO pts in category: 4
Grading comment
Yes, having investigated it a bit more I agree with this. Thank you for your help.
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36 mins   confidence: Answerer confidence 5/5 peer agreement (net): +1
rising more slowly towards full capacity levels


Explanation:
the economy does not slow down, the rate of growth does

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Note added at 1 hr (2019-12-11 12:01:26 GMT)
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Draeger's response is misguided. Potential can mean possible, as in "consider potential risks". Here it refers to a level or limit, as in "a child reaches its full potential.." I am sure of my interpretation because in a previous life I was a professor of economics.

Wolfgang Hager
Italy
Local time: 18:35
Works in field
Native speaker of: Native in GermanGerman
PRO pts in category: 16

Peer comments on this answer (and responses from the answerer)
agree  Irene (Renata) Liapis
1 day 4 hrs
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3 days 7 hrs   confidence: Answerer confidence 4/5Answerer confidence 4/5
at a slower pace


Explanation:
the pace of growth is slower than predicted.
In other words, the growth trend is rising, but not as sharply as it might have been expected/predicted.
No ambiguity. Proof of the pudding is the lower percentage for 2021.

Rosanna Palermo
Local time: 13:35
Native speaker of: Native in ItalianItalian, Native in EnglishEnglish
PRO pts in category: 11
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